OSLO: Europe will need to significantly ramp up LNG imports over the coming months to rebuild record-low gas storage levels ahead of winter, after months of weak injections, falling LNG imports and unfavourable market spreads. That’s according to new analysis from energy market intelligence provider Montel.
More than 140 LNG vessel arrivals per month would be necessary to bring European storage levels up to even 80% by the start of November. At the same time, Europe is increasingly losing LNG cargoes to higher-paying Asian markets and may need prices above EUR 60/MWh to attract sufficient supply during the remainder of the injection season. Montel modelling suggests European storage is set to reach between 69% (low case) and 84% (high case) by 1 November, depending on injection rates and LNG availability. This indicates that the EU’s 90% storage target will be out of reach.
Data from Montel’s gas analysis platform showed that European gas storage sites were just 57% full at the end of July 2026, around 12 percentage points below last year and 16 percentage points below the five-year average, leaving the region significantly behind normal levels heading into the final months of the injection season. Germany faces a particularly acute challenge, with storage levels at just 46% full as of the end of July.
Joachim Endress, Gas Market Expert at Montel, said: “Continued disruption to LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz mean that pressure on Europe’s gas market continues to build as winter approaches.”
Europe faces growing LNG shortfall of 72 cargoes
Net European storage injections between April and July totalled just 325 TWh, around 11% below the five-year average and 18% lower than during the same period last year.
While injection rates in June and July were comparable with 2024, Europe entered those months from a much weaker starting position this year. By the end of July 2024, storage was already more than 80% full.
In April, Montel estimated Europe would require around 130 LNG cargoes per month between May and October to bring storage close to 80% by the start of November.
Instead, arrivals averaged just 105 cargoes per month between May and July, leaving a cumulative shortfall of around 72 cargoes, equivalent to approximately 72 TWh of gas that could otherwise have been injected into storage.
Achieving even 80% would require more than 140 LNG vessel arrivals per month during the remaining injection period (August, September and October), a level Montel currently considers very unlikely without either significantly higher European gas prices or progress towards restoring LNG traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
As winter approaches, storage levels are therefore likely to become an increasingly important driver of European gas prices alongside geopolitical developments and global LNG competition.
Europe is increasingly losing LNG cargoes to higher-paying Asian markets
One of the main factors behind the weak injection season has been a sharp fall in European LNG supply.
After reaching record levels in Q1, European LNG imports declined steadily following the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, with July imports falling to their lowest level in almost two years.
The loss of Qatari LNG supply contributed to the squeeze, but Montel analysis shows the larger effect came from US cargoes being redirected towards higher-paying Asian markets.
US LNG deliveries to China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and India tripled between March and July, reaching record highs. In July, US shipments to those five markets exceeded deliveries to Europe for the first time.
The economics increasingly favoured Asia. During much of the period since April, netbacks for US LNG delivered to North-East Asia were higher than those for North-West Europe. In July, the margin for sending a US cargo to Asia via the Suez Canal was as much as EUR 5/MWh higher than delivering it to Europe.
Montel estimates Europe may need prices above EUR 60/MWh to attract sufficient additional LNG away from Asian buyers during the remainder of the injection season.
Market spreads discourage injections
Low LNG availability has been compounded by negative seasonal spreads at Europe’s major gas hubs, such as the TTF.
Summer contracts have remained expensive because of the immediate impact of the Middle East crisis, while winter contracts have reflected expectations that supply conditions could improve later in the year.
This has removed the normal financial incentive to buy gas during summer, place it into storage and sell it during winter.
Persistently negative spreads could have longer-term implications, with extremely low utilisation at facilities such as Rehden and Breitbrunn already contributing to discussions around potential storage closures.
