India prepares export strategy amid potential trade retaliation from US President Donald Trump

NEW DELHI : India is finalizing its trade strategy with the United States as Donald Trump prepares to reassume the presidency. The government is actively engaging with industry stakeholders to define export priorities, known as “offensive asks,” while keeping all avenues open, including a potential mini-trade deal and measures to address anticipated trade retaliation from the Trump administration.

“We have sought industry feedback on trade relations with the US and the potential impact of Trump’s policies. Their insights will guide us in evaluating key issues and identifying offensive interests,” an official stated. Offensive asks, which focus on securing greater market access for Indian exports in the US, are central to India’s negotiation approach.

The renewed focus comes in response to Trump’s threats of imposing reciprocal taxes on Indian exports, a move viewed as retaliation for what he considers high tariffs on certain US goods. The commerce and industry ministry is revisiting the framework of the mini-trade deal negotiated during Trump’s previous presidency while preparing to address any unfavorable measures. “Negotiations, discussions, retaliation, disputes, or the mini-trade deal—everything remains open for consideration,” the official remarked.

The US remains India’s second-largest trading partner, with exports from India to the US totaling $53 billion and imports reaching $30 billion between April and November FY25. Notably, US imports from India grew at a compound annual rate of 10.48 percent between 2001 and 2023, significantly outpacing the overall import growth rate of 4.76 percent.

India’s strategy, including the viability of a mini-trade deal and its response to Trump’s potential retaliatory measures, will be finalized as his administration unveils key policy decisions.

Donald Trump’s return as President of the United States is anticipated to revive his hallmark protectionist trade policies. These include imposing tariffs, targeting trade imbalances, and promoting domestic manufacturing. During his previous tenure, Trump’s trade agenda frequently emphasized reciprocal taxes and aggressive stances against trading partners, sparking fears of trade wars and global economic disruptions.