Trump’s latest Tariffs to heightened uncertainty for trade partners and rising inflation for consumers in US : Container xChange

HAMBURG : “The ongoing tariff battle, with its cycle of levies and retaliatory measures, will trigger two significant ripple effects on trade: heightened uncertainty for trade partners and rising inflation for consumers—both of which ultimately weaken demand.” shared Christian Roeloffs, cofounder and CEO of Container xChange on the topic of tariffs potentially set to impact trade and consumers.

President Donald Trump delivered a comprehensive address to Congress on March 4, 2025, outlining his administration’s policy agenda and reflecting on recent developments.

Economic Policies and Tariffs
Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, citing concerns over drug trafficking and border security. Additionally, tariffs on Chinese imports were raised from 10% to 20%, marking a significant shift in U.S. trade policy. These measures are going to have a period of raised uncertainty across global supply chains, particularly in containerized trade.

Uncertainty in trade policy is fueling volatility across markets. As Christian Roeloffs pointed out, “The container industry is moving in a more fragmented and unpredictable direction. Every time a major policy change happens, it creates shocks across trade routes, impacting container availability, leasing rates, and the resale market.”

“This unpredictability makes it more challenging for container traders and leasing companies to plan ahead, requiring a more agile approach to market shifts. The sharp reaction from financial markets following the tariff announcement further signals potential economic instability, which could spill over into global trade.” Roeloffs added.

• Key risks for the container logistics industry
• Disrupted North American Trade: Cross-border container movement between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico could potentially slow down, impacting traders and leasing companies that operate in these corridors.
• Accelerated efforts to shift sourcing trends: The added costs may accelerate the diversification of supply chains, reducing reliance on China and North America but increasing demand for shipping from alternative regions.
• Uncertain demand for containers: Leasing companies and traders may see fluctuating demand as businesses reconsider their supply chain strategies. Short-term lease agreements and spot market transactions could become more prevalent.

How to Prepare for the Rest of 2025

In an environment of shifting trade policies and economic uncertainty, container traders and leasing companies should consider:
• Monitoring policy changes closely: Tariffs can escalate or shift quickly, requiring businesses to stay informed and agile.
• Diversifying supply chain partnerships: Expanding sourcing beyond heavily tariffed regions could help mitigate risks.
• Adopting flexible leasing and trading Strategies: Given the volatility, shorter lease terms or dynamic pricing strategies may offer a better hedge against sudden market swings.
• Planning for alternative routes: If certain trade lanes see reduced container flow, identifying alternative markets and adjusting repositioning strategies will be crucial.
These tariffs mark another turning point, reinforcing the need for adaptability and proactive market planning.

Longer term Outlook
“Tariffs won’t stop trade—they’ll simply reshape its flow. As companies adjust sourcing strategies, demand and supply hotspots will shift. Higher import costs from Canada, Mexico, and China may soften demand for containerized shipments on key U.S. routes, creating challenges for businesses that rely on stable freight rates and predictable cargo movement.” Shared Roeloffs.

“Companies impacted by these tariffs will adapt by sourcing from alternative markets, potentially increasing trade through Southeast Asia and South America while reducing container movement along traditional Transpacific and North American cross-border routes.” Further added Roeloffs.

“While tariffs may dampen demand in some regions, they could fuel it elsewhere. Rising costs for importers may slow ocean freight demand, impacting container prices and lease rates, but new sourcing hubs will emerge, creating fresh demand centers. This shifting landscape could lead to localized container shortages in high-growth areas and surpluses in others, requiring the industry to stay agile in response to evolving trade dynamics.” Roeloffs concluded.