Cargo arrivals at US Port of Los Angeles to fall by 35% next week as trade war heats up

NEW YORK : Container ship arrivals at the port of Los Angeles are expected to fall by 35% next week when compared with the same week a year ago, the executive director of the port said.

Gene Seroka, Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles, said cargo from China makes up 45% of volumes through the port annually.

“This is a precipitous drop in volumes with a number of American retailers stopping all shipments from China based on the tariffs,” Seroka said in an interview on CNBC.

The expected slowdown comes after nine months of year-on-year increases in volumes as Chinese exporters accelerated shipments to circumvent the tariffs, and US retailers pulled volumes forward for the same reason.

Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers – such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) – are shipped in pellets. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is also shipped in containers.

They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks.

Seroka said he anticipates the fall in volumes to persist until a trade agreement is reached between China and the US.

“Until some accord or framework is reached with China, the volumes coming out of there – save a couple of different commodities – will be very light at best,” Seroka said.

Seroka thinks US retailers have about five to seven weeks of inventory, and that manufacturers likely also pulled forward components so there could be a delay before consumers notice any shortfalls.

Rates for shipping containers from China have been relatively stable over the past six weeks despite the decrease in volumes. Over the past week, rates from southeast Asia and Vietnam rose above rates from China as the trade war contributes to shifting trade patterns.

Shipowners have dramatically increased blank sailings amid efforts to support rates or at least stop the slide.

Rates from Shanghai to New York have fallen by 49%, and rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles have fallen by 52% from the most recent highs in September, according to supply chain advisors Drewry and as shown in the following chart.

Market intelligence group Linerlytica said ocean carrier Zim has withdrawn its Central China Express line after the last departure on 10 April. The line was launched in July 2024 and called at Shanghai, Ningbo, Los Angeles, Shanghai using five ships of 4,500-5,300 TEU (20-foot equivalent units). The last sailing was made by the 5,500 TEU Mississippi that departed from Ningbo on 10 April and made its last call at Los Angeles on 24 April 2025.

Zim said the withdrawal was in response to a sharp drop in Chinese exports to the US following the imposition of punitive tariffs.