XENETA Weekly Ocean Container Shipping Market Update – 23.5.25

OSLO : “Fear and uncertainty is a powerful force in global supply chains and we are seeing this clearly as shippers fight to get their goods moving after the temporary lowering of US-China tariffs – and they are willing to pay higher rates to do so.

“Carriers are pushing for big spot rates increases on trades from China to US on 1 June and shippers are once again being offered ‘Diamond Tier’ services to guarantee space on ships. How successful carriers are in getting these rates will be determined by how much shippers are willing to push back.

“There is little doubt there is a squeeze on capacity after carriers ripped it out in the face of falling demand during the period of 145% tariffs, but shippers should question the severity when negotiating rates.

“Are these rate increases being driven by a squeeze in capacity or fear in the market? Likely a combination of both.

“In the defence of carriers, it does take time to shift capacity back to the China-US trades, so spot rates will peak in the first half of June before softening later in the month.” says Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst.

Data highlights

• Market average spot rates – 23 May 2025:
  • Far East to US West Coast: USD 3000 per FEU (40ft container)
  • Far East to US East Coast: USD 4069 per FEU
  • Far East to North Europe: USD 1949 per FEU
  • Far East to Mediterranean: USD 3128 per FEU
  • North Europe to US East Coast: USD 2101 per FEU
    
• Market mid-high spot rates – 23 May 2025:
  • Far East to US West Coast: USD 3200 per FEU
  • Far East to US East Coast: USD 4250 per FEU
  • Far East to North Europe: USD 2147 per FEU
  • Far East to Mediterranean: USD 3372 per FEU
  • North Europe to US East Coast: USD 2322 per FEU
    
    Note: The Xeneta mid-high is the spot rates paid by shippers in the 75^th percentile of the market.

• Delta between market average and mid-high shows the different rates being paid by shippers, ie, those shippers negotiating rates on Transpacific trades post the US-China announcement of a 90-day lowering in tariffs are paying higher rates towards the market mid-high.
  
• Mid-high spot rates increased USD 533 per FEU from Far East to US East Coast on 15 May and a smaller uptick of USD 17 per FEU on 23 May.
  
• Mid-high spot rates increased USD 536 per FEU from Far East to US West Coast on 15 May and a smaller uptick of USD 50 per FEU on 23 May.
  
• Average spot rates expected to increase significantly on 1 June, with carriers pushing for all-in rates of USD 7000 per FEU from Far East to US East Coast and ‘Diamond Tier’ services now being offered to shippers.
  
• How close average spot rates get to the levels being pushed by carriers depends on how desperate/willing shippers are to pay higher and higher costs to move goods after the temporary lowering of US-China tariffs.
  
• Since 1 May, average spot rates from Far East to North Europe have been lower than North Europe to US East Coast for the first time since pre-Red Sea Crisis in November 2023. This is driven by falling rates from Far East to North Europe rather than increases on the Transatlantic trade.