An unusual pattern in India-US trade– Fall under low tariffs, rise under high : GTRI

NEW DELHI : India’s exports to the US between May and November 2025 followed a clear two-phase pattern: a sharp decline until September, followed by a partial recovery by November, according to an analysis by the trade-focused think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).

India’s exports to the U.S. fell 20.7% from $8.8 billion in May to $7.0 billion in November. The decline was much sharper earlier in the year, as exports dropped 37.7% from May to September, reaching a low of $5.5 billion. From that trough, exports partly recovered by 27.3% between September and November, indicating a rebound after a steep mid-year fall.

According to the GTRI, nearly 85% of November exports came from sectors that first declined and then rebounded. For example, Gems and Jewellery exports plunged from $500.2 million in May to $202.8 million in September, then rebounded to $406.2 million in November.

According to GTRI, same pattern is visible across electronics (smartphones), machinery, vehicles and auto components, pharmaceuticals, textiles and garments, carpets, mineral fuels, organic chemicals, plastics, rubber articles, fish, dairy products, and edible fruits and nuts.

“India’s exports fell more sharply during the low-tariff phase and then recovered partially under the higher-tariff regime. This pattern is unusual,” GTRI said.