Global Trade faces mounting disruptions amid escalating West Asia conflict
OSLO : The global trade ecosystem is grappling with severe disruptions as the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran continues to strain supply chains, port operations, and shipping schedules worldwide. Emerging trade data indicates that the situation is likely to deteriorate further before stabilizing.
According to analytics from Xeneta, congestion across global ports has reached alarming levels. Its Ocean/Port Congestion Map reveals that over 80% of the world’s 454 mapped ports are currently in a critical state. Additionally, 60–70% of ports are experiencing severe congestion, while 45–59% are classified as highly congested.
Destine Ozuygur, Senior Market Analyst at Xeneta, highlighted the “three waves of disrupted cargo” contributing to the crisis. The first wave involved vessels already operating in or near the Persian Gulf at the onset of hostilities. The second comprised ships that had departed from Asia before service suspensions were announced. The third wave now includes newly booked cargo facing uncertainty and delays.
These disruptions have significantly impacted vessel schedules and service reliability. A total of five vessel strings, representing a capacity of 44,507 TEUs, have been suspended—four services connecting the Far East to the Middle East (29,225 TEUs) and one from Europe (15,282 TEUs).
India, a crucial transshipment hub, is witnessing increased pressure on its port infrastructure. Key ports such as Mundra Port and Nhava Sheva Port are experiencing declining schedule reliability. On-time vessel arrivals at Mundra have dropped from 44% to 31%, while Nhava Sheva has seen a decline from 50% to 33%. Notably, more than one in three vessels are arriving at least a week behind schedule.
Data from Vizion further underscores the slowdown in container movement. At Mundra Port, 230 containers tracked on March 19 took four days to gate out, compared to 1,668 containers on February 25—prior to the conflict—which took 7.62 days to exit. This illustrates a significant decline in container velocity and operational efficiency.
In response to the ongoing disruptions, ocean carriers are suspending services, rerouting vessels, and increasing freight rates to offset higher fuel costs associated with longer transit routes. Strategies such as slow steaming are also being adopted, though they further extend delivery timelines.
The cascading effects are being felt across global supply chains. Shippers are now reassessing logistics strategies, balancing cost versus speed amid rising uncertainty. Manufacturing sectors, heavily dependent on timely delivery of raw materials, are particularly vulnerable. Petroleum-based products—integral to over 6,000 everyday items—along with LNG and other critical commodities, are already experiencing delayed arrivals.
Industry experts caution that even if critical chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen immediately and regional ports declared safe, it would still take weeks—if not months—for supply chains to stabilize.
The ongoing crisis underscores the fragility of global trade networks and highlights the long road ahead toward restoring normalcy.
Source : gCaptain