Middle East Conflict: Straits of Hormuz Transits 95% Down
LONDON: Clarksons Research, the data and analytics arm of the Clarksons Group have been closely monitoring shipping activity and markets impacted by the conflict.
Summarising their latest update issued at 10.00 am 30th March, Steve Gordon, Global Head of Clarksons Research commented :
- Slight uptick in Strait of Hormuz transits, though still 95% down on pre-conflict levels (avg. 6 transits per day past week vs 4 the week before and ~125 pre-conflict) with 70% of transits in the past week exiting the Gulf
- ~13 oil tankers (14m bbl) estimated to have transited through the Strait over the past 7 days (versus 250 vessels of 300m bbl in a normal week)
- Iranian crude exports (mostly via Kharg Island) remain broadly in line with pre-conflict trends (>1.5m bpd)
- Crude exports from Yanbu are now running at ~5m bpd (up from 1m bpd, with the pipeline now at capacity and with ~35 VLCCs waiting/enroute), while US crude exports could reach 5m bpd (normally 4m bpd) with a wide arbitrage in place
- 6 VLGCs (~275,000t of LPG) left the Middle East Gulf this week versus typical levels of 16 vessels (710,000t)
- 11% / 6% of global oil / gas supply offline, alongside 3% of global refining capacity
- Excluding locally trading vessels, there are ~1,100 ships (36m GT of $29bn) currently inside the Gulf. This total includes ~300 oil tankers, including 6% of crude tanker (8% of VLCCs) and 3% of product tanker tonnage as well as 3% of VLGC and 1% of containership and bulker tonnage
- Vessel charter rates across tanker and gas remain elevated despite loss of cargo volume for now, with a range of ‘mitigating’ factors currently lending support, but with rates in the Atlantic stronger
- Suezmax ($330,000/day) and Aframax ($285,000/day) tanker earnings rising to all time highs, led by rate levels in the US Gulf and Black Sea
- In the container shipping segment, freight rates on the key China-North Europe route have now risen by 20% since end February to $1,703/TEU, though remain well below Covid-19 levels of over $8,000/TEU. Bulkcarrier earnings are steady at around $15,000/day
- Aside from increase in VLCC volumes, Red Sea transitsremain at the lower levels of recent years (e.g. down 90% on ‘typical’ levels for container, 95% for LNG, 66% for LPG, 57% for bulkcarrier)
- The cost of moving a barrel of crude oil has increased further in the Atlantic, rising to $18/bbl on a US Gulf – India Suezmax voyage and $23/bbl on a US Gulf – Europe Aframax voyage, up from $6/bbl on both routes at start-2026
- Some easing of bunker price pressures in the East (VLSFO in Singapore now stands at $850/t, down from >$1,100/t on 13th March) though prices remain nearly double start-year levels ($430/t) while the East-West bunker price spread has narrowed from record levels in mid-March (now at $120/t, down from ~$360/t)
- Prior to the conflict, 20% of global oil supply passed through the Strait of Hormuz, including 37% / 19% of seaborne crude oil and products trade. 19% of global LNG trade (3% of global natural gas supply) also passed through the Strait, alongside 28% of global LPG volumes (~10% of supply), as well as 13% of seaborne chemicals, 9% of cars, 4% of dry bulk and 3% of container trade volumes
See below graphs (underling data available on request).
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