Clarksons Research at Nor-Shipping 2025

OSLO : Clarksons Research are exhibiting at the 36^th Nor-Shipping trade exhibition in Oslo this week 3^rd to 6^th June 2025 and would be delighted to see any attendees at Booth B05-04c. Reviewing recent market data points, Steve Gordon, Global Head of Clarksons Research, commented:

• Sixty years on from the first Nor-Shipping, we expect global shipping to move 12.6bn tonnes of cargo in 2025 (1965: 1.8bn tonnes) supported by a fleet of 2.5bn dwt (1965: 0.25bn dwt).
• We project shipbuilding output in 2025 will increase 4% y-o-y to 74.1m GT (1965: ~13m GT).
• We project regional shipbuilding market shares in 2025 of 53% for China, 27% for South Korea, 14% for Japan, 4% for Europe and 0.1% for the US (1965: Europe (~45%), Japan (~44%), US (2%).   
• Newbuild ordering in the first five months of 2025 is down ~50% y-o-y as geo-political uncertainties impact, albeit from 2024 levels that represented the strongest ordering year since 2008 and with shipyards generally retaining very strong forward orderbook coverage.
• The global newbuilding orderbook stands at 164.4m CGT of $511.6bn, with strong orderbook backlogs in gas, container and car carrier and now with an improving backlog for cruise.
• Despite the current market focus on geo-political uncertainty and trade disruption, shipping’s Green Transition remains a crucial underlying trend with emissions regulation continuing to be adopted, green technology investments continuing and strong fleet renewal requirements from an ageing fleet.
  • As of 1^st June, our latest data points suggest 52% of orderbook by tonnage (29% by number) is now alternative fuel capable, falling to 46% of capacity if LNG carriers are excluded.
  • Our data shows 1,397 vessels in the fleet / 1,020 on order are LNG dual fuel capable (756 / 683 if LNG Carriers are excluded), 63 in the fleet / 334 on order are methanol capable, 4 in the fleet / 45 on order are ammonia capable, and 697 in the fleet / 503 on order are battery-hybrid.
  • Our data also shows 854 vessels in fleet / 940 on order that have alternative fuel “ready” status (577 LNG ready ships in the fleet and 154 on the orderbook, while there are 304 ammonia ready, 633 methanol ready and 16 hydrogen ready vessels on order, with some vessels having ‘multi-fuel’ ready status).
  • Today 8% of global fleet carrying capacity is alternative fuelled and we project this to increase to 20% by 2030 (2015: 1%).
  • With an ageing fleet (13.2 years on a GT weighted basis, up from a low of 9.7 years in 2013), around a third of fleet capacity rating D or E under CII last year and lengthening lead times (yard orderbook forward cover: ~3.7 years) at major shipyards, retrofitting of Energy Saving Technologies (ESTs) remains a crucial part of shipping’s decarbonisation pathway. Significant Energy Saving Technologies (ESTs) have been fitted on over 12,115 ships, accounting for >41% of fleet tonnage: this includes propeller ducts, rudder bulbs, Flettner rotors, wind kites, air lubrication systems and others (>635 ships with air lubrication system and >145 units involving “wind” assistance in the fleet and orderbook). Our tracker also includes 44 vessels in the fleet (plus 16 newbuild orders) testing onboard carbon capture technology. Meanwhile, the share of fleet that is fitted with an “Eco” engine has risen to over 35%.
  • Investments in port infrastructure and the availability of “green” fuels continue to lag, with our Green Technology Tracker detailing 275 ports with LNG bunkering and 297 ports with shore power connections in place or planned but only 40 ports with methanol bunkering available or planned.
  • We now estimate that shipping’s global GHG emissions will have increased by ~4% y-o-y in 2024 to over 1 billion tonnes of CO2e and over 2% of global emissions on a WTW basis and have moved above pre Covid-19 levels, with a higher proportion of time being spent at sea (amid Red Sea re-routing), some increases in speed (especially in the container market, albeit we project the underlying long term trend for declining speed will continue) and trade growth offsetting the growing share of alternative fuelled vessels, “eco” ships and tonnage with ESTs.
• In 2025, 38% of global seaborne trade will be energy cargo (4.6 bn tonnes) and 16% of global energy production will be sourced from offshore oil and gas, highlighting the importance of both energy transition and energy security to the maritime sector.
  • Gas shipping is growing strongly, with LNG carrier markets on the cusp of a major expansion phase (LNG trade could grow to ~655mt by 2030, up 60% from today). In addition, LPG carrier markets continue to expand (2024 saw record newbuild investment of 159 ships of 10.4m cbm), while we expect strong growth in ethane (potential for ~50 mt to be traded via sea by 2035), ammonia (~45mt) and CO2  (~30mt) shipping and we are also tracking >85 hydrogen production projects linked to shipping requirements. 
  • Offshore wind represents 0.4% of global energy supply today and we project this to reach 2% by 2035 and 6% by 2050.
• Norway remains a leading maritime cluster (Norwegian shipping companies control ~3% of the world fleettonnage), while Oslo is also a vital hub for ship finance, shipbroking, class services and insurance.

Shipping Intelligence Network (SIN) is Clarkson Research’s market leading digital platform and the most comprehensive source of data on shipping and trade. The system provides immediate access to uniquely powerful data and analysis tracking and projecting market supply / demand, freight, vessel earnings, vessel values and macro-economic data around trade flows and global economic developments.

Clarksons Research, the data and analytics arm of Clarksons, are the market leaders in the provision of independent data and intelligence around shipping, trade, offshore and the maritime energy transition. Millions of data points are processed and analysed each day to provide trusted and insightful intelligence to thousands of stakeholders across maritime. Better data for better decisions.