Dry Bulk Shipping: Rates Volatility as Middle East War intensified

LONDON: Baltic Exchange Weekly Roundup Bulk report – Week 10

Capesize

The market experienced a volatile week, shaped largely by macro developments and rising bunker prices rather than a clear improvement in underlying demand. Early in the week, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the resulting surge in oil prices pushed bunker costs sharply higher. This drove voyage rates upward, particularly in the Pacific, although much of the increase reflected higher fuel expenses rather than stronger earnings for owners.

The Pacific initially maintained a firm tone, supported by intermittent miner activity and steady C5 volumes, with rates briefly climbing into the low-$11s. However, momentum proved fragile and, by the latter part of the week, sentiment softened as fixing levels slipped back toward the mid-$9.00 range. In the Atlantic, the South Brazil and West Africa to China market showed pockets of activity and remained comparatively more resilient, although interest around index dates cooled towards the end of the week. The market was notably date dependent, with a clear premium for April arrivals and fixtures concluded in the $27s on C3. Meanwhile, the North Atlantic remained largely subdued throughout the week, reflecting ample vessel supply and limited fresh demand.

Panamax

The week was characterised by a continued divergence between the Atlantic and Pacific markets. In the Atlantic, sentiment steadily weakened as the week progressed, driven by limited fresh enquiry and a growing list of prompt tonnage. This oversupply placed increasing pressure on owners, with the P1A index declining throughout the week and fixtures remaining relatively sparse. By contrast, the Pacific maintained firmer fundamentals, supported by tighter vessel availability and a steady flow of cargoes, particularly from the North Pacific and Australian loading regions. Index gains across the P3A and P4A routes earlier in the week reflected this stronger utilisation, although by Thursday signs emerged that rates may be approaching a near-term ceiling as enquiry slowed. Period activity was modest overall, with the P5TC ending the week broadly stable around the $17,656 mark despite midweek gains.

Ultramax/Supramax

The market recorded a generally firm week, although momentum moderated toward the end of the period as participants tried to observe developments in the Middle East.

In the Continent and Mediterranean, activity gradually increased as fresh enquiry, particularly scrap stems, supported rates slightly above previous fixtures. A 64,000-dwt open Avilés 7–8 March fixed via the Continent to the East Mediterranean with scrap at $20,000. The US Gulf remained relatively firm earlier in the week, benefiting from stronger bids and renewed cargo interest, although sentiment softened later as activity slowed.

A 56,000-dwt was placed on subjects for delivery SW Pass to WC Central America at $31,000. The South Atlantic maintained a healthy tone overall, with steady March demand and tightening availability. A 58,000-dwt was fixed for a trip delivery Tema 1 March via Recalada to Mediterranean Egypt at $20,500. In Asia, market conditions remained broadly stable. Early improvements were supported by fresh cargoes and stronger bids seen on NoPac and backhaul routes. However, activity later levelled off as both cargo volumes and the tonnage list stabilised. A 64,000-dwt open Chittagong 7–8 March was heard fixed for a trip via Indonesia to WC India at $18,000. Period activity remained active throughout the week, reflecting continued confidence in near-term market fundamentals. A 61,000-dwt open Chittagong 6–7 March fixed for one year at $17,000.

Handysize

The market recorded a generally positive week despite some caution linked to developments in the Middle East.

In the Continent and Mediterranean, activity remained relatively healthy, with fresh demand helping rates hold at firmer levels. A 38,000-dwt vessel was reported fixed for a trip from Canakkale to the US Gulf at $9,600. In the Atlantic, the South Atlantic and US Gulf appeared quieter overall, with limited fresh information emerging and sentiment easing slightly as the week progressed. Asia, however, continued to be the primary driver of market strength. Steady cargo demand combined with tightening vessel availability across Southeast Asia and the North Pacific supported a firmer tone. Increased competition for prompt tonnage encouraged charterers to raise bids, resulting in several firm fixtures and improved rate discussions. A 32,000-dwt vessel open Japan was reported fixed for a trip to India at $14,250. Period activity was also noted during the week, with several vessels securing short-term employment. Among these, a 32,000-dwt vessel open Hong Kong was fixed for 3–5 months at $13,000, reflecting continued interest in period coverage despite broader market uncertainties.

Source: Baltic Exchange