Global Trade momentum eases as early-year tariff rush fades: WTO

LONDON : Global merchandise trade lost steam in the September quarter as the early-year surge driven by advance ordering ahead of fresh US tariffs tapered off, according to the World Trade Organisation.

The WTO’s latest Goods Trade Barometer slipped to 101.8 in September, down from 102.2 in June, signalling that growth in the coming months will align only with medium-term trends rather than show any strong pickup. A reading above 100 points to expansion.

Key indicators such as air freight and container shipping continued to expand but weakened from the previous quarter, reflecting a gradual cooling in the movement of goods worldwide. Automotive and electronics sectors showed signs of stabilisation, while agriculture remained in contraction territory. New export orders picked up slightly, offering some relief.

The WTO said the overall picture suggests “moderation in global trade growth” as the boost from front-loaded US import demand fades. Importers had rushed to place orders earlier this year to avoid higher duties imposed by US President Donald Trump on goods from major trading partners.

Trade patterns shifted sharply as a result. US imports from China dropped 22 per cent through August, while shipments from Vietnam, India, Thailand, Malaysia and Taiwan recorded gains of more than 20 per cent, US data showed.

The WTO expects world trade volumes to grow 2.4 per cent in 2025, slower than the 2.8 per cent recorded in 2024. Growth is projected to cool sharply to 0.5 per cent next year amid persistent tariff tensions and softening global demand.