Indian cardamom exporters bet big on Guatemalan crop failure

NEW DELHI : A failure in Guatemala’s cardamom crop has rekindled the hopes of Indian exporters of dispatching more overseas shipments, especially to the Gulf markets for the ensuing Ramadan season.

The emerging situation leaves India with a good scope to export more quantity with a record shipment of 12,000 to 14,000 tonnes, industry sources said.

Guatemala production, according to S.B. Prabhakar, a cardamom planter in Idukki, is expected to be around 17,000 tonnes this season against 14,000 tonnes.

In normal years, the usual production is around 40,000 to 50,000 tonnes. As replanting has not been undertaken in the wake of drought last year, the production next year is likely to be around 22,000 tonnes.

Meanwhile, the picking season in many growing regions in Idukki is on and there will be sporadic pickings till March 2026. The calendar year 2025 should see auction arrivals to be in the range of 30,000 to 31,000 tonnes with average prices ruling at Rs2520 per kg.

For producers, he said 2025 was a better year after the El Niño drought in 2024.. With La Niña conditions, the sector is expecting good spring showers by March 2026.

Shifting global dynamics
Hareesh M.V., Director, Wealth Management Service, Harnez Fin EPSL, said the crop failure in Guatemala has fundamentally shifted the global supply-demand dynamic, which is seen as a rare strategic window for India to reclaim territory in the global market.

For years, Indian cardamom (which is oil-rich and premium) struggled to compete with the sheer volume of cheaper, lower-grade Guatemalan exports in the Gulf markets such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait etc. With Guatemala’s production dropping, Indian exporters are seeing a massive surge in inquiries.

India is poised to be the primary supplier for the peak Ramadan/Eid season where demand for cardamom for Gahwa coffee is at its highest, he said adding that exporting 12,000 to 14,000 tonnes would be a significant jump from the average 6,000–8,000 tonnes.

‘Availability sensitive’
The Middle East market is currently less price-sensitive and more “availability-sensitive”—they need the greenest, largest pods for the festive season and are willing to pay the premium to secure Indian stock over the missing Guatemalan supply. The Indian 8mm cardamom is currently quoted around $35/kg.

SKM.Dhanavanthan, a Bodinayakanur based exporter said high-volume arrivals in the auctions have not compromised quality and the current crop meets stringent international standards, sustaining robust demand. The significant drop in Guatemala production has started redirecting global buyers towards Indian auctions.

However, the price volatility in the auctions is making it difficult for exporters to commit to high quantity and long term contracts. At the same time, sharp forex volatility is making export price-fixing nearly impossible. Sudden exchange rate drops are eroding the margins of small exporters. Any further price hike will inevitably shrink export volumes, he said.