Maritime experts forecast normalization of Red Sea Shipping in Q2 2025
CAIRO : Maritime transport experts project a return to normal shipping traffic levels in the Red Sea by the second quarter of 2025, following recent geopolitical stabilizations, including the Gaza ceasefire. This optimistic forecast hinges on sustained peace in the region, which would enable a partial resumption of shipping lines through the Suez Canal.
Ahmed Al-Shami, a maritime transport economics expert, informed Al-Borsa that the positive impacts of the Gaza truce on Red Sea and Suez Canal traffic would manifest gradually, with significant recovery expected starting Q2, provided stability persists. He noted that the Suez Canal offers a quicker, more cost-effective route compared to the alternative Cape of Good Hope, although shipping lines are currently deterred by political uncertainties.
Transit rates through the Suez Canal are anticipated to remain stable until the end of June, with freight rates likely to decline in the second quarter, according to Al-Shami.
Ahmed Mostafa, Vice President of FIATA, echoed the cautious sentiment, pointing out that shipping companies are hesitant to resume Red Sea operations without assurances against potential vessel attacks.
Hazem Abo Elnil, from Alexandria Container & Cargo Handling Company, explained that major shipping companies like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have deferred their return to Red Sea routes, awaiting further confirmation of regional safety and stability. He predicted that shipping firms would likely wait at least three months to verify the cessation of hostilities before committing to Suez Canal transits.
With shipping strategies for 2025 set to be disclosed in April, industry observers are keenly watching whether companies will continue using the longer Cape of Good Hope route or revert to the Suez Canal. Abo Elnil anticipates that freight rates will hold steady until June, although returning to pre-crisis levels may be challenging due to ongoing supply chain adjustments and shifts in supplier strategies.
Logistics expert and former Transport Ministry advisor Mohamed Ali suggested that normalization of shipping traffic through the Suez Canal is expected by Q2 of 2025, despite recent announcements by Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd regarding their preference for the Cape of Good Hope route in light of regional instability. Ali noted that these developments would likely affect vessel transit volumes through the Suez Canal in the near term.
Source : Shipping Arabia