Middle East Conflict: Strait of Hormuz Transits Now 90% Down

LONDON: Clarksons Research, the data and analytics arm of the Clarksons Group have been closely monitoring shipping activity and markets impacted by the conflict.

Summarising their latest update issued today at 10.00 am 7^th April, Steve Gordon, Global Head of Clarksons Research commented :

• Small increase in Strait of Hormuz transits – now 90% down on pre-conflict levels (avg. 11 transits per day over past 5 days vs ~125 pre-conflict)
• 75% of transits have been to exit the Gulf in the past week while ‘non-mainstream’ vessels have accounted for over half (~60%) of transits      
• LPG carrier (76% below typical levels) and bulkcarrier (85%) continue to lead recent uptick in transits though the first LNG carrier transit for over a month was recently recorded and small-scale increases emerging in other segments (e.g. crude tanker, containerships)
• ~10 crude tankers (17m bbl / $2.0bn cargo value) estimated to have transited through the Strait over the past 7 days compared to 135 vessels (105m bbl / $7.3bn cargo value) in a typical week in 2025
• Crude exports from Yanbu are now running at 4-5m bpd (up from 1m bpd, with the pipeline now at capacity and with ~25 VLCCs waiting/enroute)
• US oil and gas loading activity also remains strong, with increasing vessels heading West – westbound transits round the Cape of Good Hope for tankers / LPG carriers are up 70% / 60% versus pre-conflict levels
• 11% / 6% of global oil / gas supply still offline, alongside 3% of global refining capacity
• ~3,300 vessels estimated to still be in the Gulf (2% of global tonnage, est. value: $41bn). Excluding local traffic (~2,100 vessels, including ~1,100 offshore vessels and ~300 general cargo ships), around 8% of VLCC, 3% of product tanker / VLGC tonnage remains ‘stuck’ in the Gulf.
• Vessel charter rates across tanker and gas remain elevated despite the loss of cargo volume, with support for the moment from alternative energy supply sources, supportive distance trends, disruption, re-positioning and inefficiency
• Tanker earnings at exceptionally strong levels, with average VLCC earnings at $201,000/day, while Suezmax ($303,000/day) and Aframax ($268,000/day) earnings have softened marginally from late March but remained close to record highs while the product tanker market also remains very strong (but unbalanced regionally and driven by rates in the Atlantic / West), with global MR earnings standing at $62,000/day
• Gas carrier rates have also eased marginally but remain strong, with LNG carrier spot rates standing at $88,000/day (x2 versus 2025 average of $37,000/day) while VLGC earnings on the US-Japan route stand at $73,000/day, 25% above the (strong) 5-year average
• Bulkcarrier markets (average earnings: $16,000/day) have continued to see generally regional not global impacts from the conflict in the Middle East, although volatile bunker prices have continued to make finalising transactions difficult
• Container markets have seen improved sentiment since the start of the conflict, with freight rates lifted by higher bunker costs. The SCFI Far East – Europe rate rose 20% across March before easing for the first time since the conflict began last week, by 3% to $1,650/TEU (still well below prior peaks of >$8,000/TEU during the Covid-19 pandemic and >$5,000/TEU in 2024)  
• The cost of moving a barrel of crude oil has eased back a little in the Atlantic, softening by around $1.5/bbl from late March to $16/bbl on a US Gulf – India Suezmax voyage and $21/bbl on a US Gulf – Europe Aframax voyage, still elevated compared to $6/bbl on both routes at start-2026
• Bunker prices remain elevated though below recent highs; VLSFO in Singapore now at $890/t, up 1% over the last week and double the pre-conflict level, though down from >$1,100/t in mid-March
• Prior to the conflict, 20% of global oil supply passed through the Strait of Hormuz, including 37% / 19% of seaborne crude oil and products trade. 19% of global LNG trade (3% of global natural gas supply) also passed through the Strait, alongside 28% of global LPG volumes (~10% of supply), as well as 13% of seaborne chemicals, 9% of cars, 4% of dry bulk and 3% of container trade volumes  

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