New study maps the web of climate transition risks facing shipping and warns that siloed approaches to address them would not limit exposure
ROTTERDAM: A new white paper published on Wednesday argues that the sector’s current fragmented approach to climate risk management leaves it dangerously exposed. The white paper titled, Navigating climate transition risks in global shipping, draws on a peer-reviewed academic study by researchers from Erasmus Rotterdam University, University of Copenhagen and UCL, and provides comprehensive analysis of the climate-related transition risks facing the global shipping industry.
The study identified five interconnected categories of transition risk — litigation, policy, contractual, technology, and social, and maps the pathways through which risks in one domain can trigger or amplify consequences in another. For instance, the IMO’s Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) regulation requires investment in emissions-reducing technologies and operations, which in turn generates unresolved contractual questions around cost allocation and performance guarantees — questions that may ultimately land in litigation. Separately, social pressure for stronger environmental standards can accelerate regulatory ambition, while simultaneously triggering greenwashing claims and shareholder suits over inadequate climate disclosure.
Hannah Mosmans, external PhD Researcher at the Department of Law & Markets at Erasmus School of Law, and Researcher Port Economics and Maritime Law at Erasmus Centre for Urban, Port and Transport Economics (Erasmus UPT), Erasmus University Rotterdam, said “Addressing climate transition risks in shipping requires more than isolated legal or technical solutions: it demands genuine interdisciplinary collaboration. The challenges we face sit at the intersection of public and private law, economic incentives, policy design, and technological and safety considerations. Only by connecting these perspectives can we begin to understand how risks propagate through the maritime supply chain and develop responses that are both effective and workable in practice. This research shows that bridging disciplines is not simply valuable, but essential, if we are to navigate the complexity of maritime decarbonisation and meaningfully address these ‘wicked problems.’”
With the IMO working towards the adoption of the Net Zero Framework later this year, EU ETS and FuelEU obligations already in force and other regional regulations forthcoming, the research argues that the shipping industry can no longer afford to treat legal, regulatory, contractual, technological, and social risks as separate business problems. The decisions companies make today — on fuels, contracts, financing, and fleet investment — will determine their exposure for decades. The central finding is action or inaction in a single risk category rarely stays contained.
The research draws on a mixed-methods approach combining a systematic literature review spanning the period 2014 to 2025 with legal doctrinal analysis of key maritime conventions, case law, and regulatory instruments. This dual approach allows the authors to connect insights from across disciplines and illustrate these through cascade chain examples. For example, the inclusion of shipping in the EU Emissions Trading System, for instance, introduces carbon pricing obligations that necessitate operational adjustments such as slow steaming or route optimisation, which in turn generate contractual uncertainties regarding cost allocation, performance obligations, and financial arrangements – issues that may ultimately give rise to disputes or litigation.
Dr. Ana Stella Ebbersmeyer, Postdoctoral Researcher at the Centre for Climate Change Law and Governance (CLIMA), Faculty of Law, University of Copenhagen, said: “This research shows that transition risks in shipping cannot be understood in isolation. Regulatory changes, litigation exposures, contractual uncertainties, technological shifts and social pressures are tightly interlinked, meaning that developments in one area can rapidly cascade into others. Recognising these connections is essential for the industry to develop strategies that reflect the full complexity of maritime decarbonisation.”
Understanding the interconnected nature of these risks and setting priorities accordingly will be essential for maintaining resilient and operationally sustainable maritime businesses as the sector accelerates its transition to decarbonisation.
Interconnectedness of climate risks in the shipping industry
Link to white paper: https://www.shippingandoceans.com/post/new-study-maps-the-web-of-climate-transition-risks-facing-shipping
Link to full research paper: https://doi.org/10.1186/s41072-026-00233-7
About Erasmus School of Law, Erasmus University Rotterdam
Erasmus School of Law (ESL) approaches maritime decarbonisation as a fundamentally legal and regulatory challenge at the intersection of international law, EU regulation, private law, and market practice. Building on its strong maritime and transport law tradition and its location in Europe’s largest port, ESL focuses on how international conventions, EU instruments, and contractual and liability frameworks must evolve to enable the transition to low‑ and zero‑emission shipping, without losing sight of commercial practice, and the need for a fair risk allocation across the maritime chain.
About CLIMA, University of Copenhagen
The Centre for Climate Change Law and Governance (CLIMA) at the University of Copenhagen’s Faculty of Law studies the legal and political dimensions of the transition towards sustainable societies. CLIMA takes a broad view of the climate change challenge, and engages in a wide array of matters ranging from the energy transition and sustainable transport to questions of eco-social policy or human rights. At the Faculty of Law, CLIMA offers a series of courses driven by the Centre’s research and supervises theses at all levels. It furthermore serves as a hub for interdisciplinary research and as an interface with stakeholders in Denmark and beyond.
About UCL Energy Institute
The UCL Energy Institute hosts a world leading research group which aims to accelerate the transition to an equitable and sustainable energy and trade system within the context of the ocean. The research group’s multi-disciplinary work on the shipping and ocean system leverages advanced data analytics, cutting-edge modelling, and rigorous research methods, providing crucial insights for decision-makers in both policy and industry. The group focuses on three core areas: analysing big data to understand drivers of historical emissions and wider environmental impacts, developing models and frameworks to explore energy and trade transition to a zero emissions future, and conducting social science research to examine the policy and commercial structures that enable the decarbonisation of the shipping sector.
