LONDON: Clarksons Research, the data and analytics arm of the Clarksons, will be attending the bi-annual shipbuilding and marine equipment trade fair SMM in Hamburg 1st-4th September (Stand B1.OG.303).
Reviewing the market backdrop to this year’s SMM, Steve Gordon, Global Head of Clarksons Research, commented:
“This week, 50,000 industry participants will gather at the biannual SMM trade fair in Hamburg, a key event for yards and suppliers. In this week’s Analysis we review trends since the last SMM (orderbook +33% to 405.5m GT and $666 bn), position in the long-term shipbuilding cycle (global output nearing previous peak) and key discussion themes (geopolitics, order “boom” duration, yard capacity, fleet renewal, “net zero”).
- Global newbuilding orderbook up 33% to 405.4m GT and $66bn in the two years since previous SMM
- Underlying shipping markets at exceptional levels supported by geo-political disruption events, with ClarkSea Index at over $40,000/day
- Very strong order intake levels for container, tanker and gas carriers
- Consensus on emissions regulation “stalled” and drop in share of orders alternative fuelled
- European shipyards have a 96% share of near record $72bn cruise ship orderbook
SMM 2026 …
Two years on from the last SMM, the shipbuilding and marine equipment sectors return to Hamburg in “rude” health. The global newbuilding orderbook is up 33% ($666bn, with ~60% of this to flow through to suppliers) and the average backlog is ~4 years (2030 ordering typical in some segments). Underlying shipping markets are “stellar” with our cross-sector day rate index the ClarkSea, “turbocharged” by Hormuz disruption, north of $40,000/day (its highest ever position prior to SMM). And while newbuild prices have been more stable in the past two years, average second-hand asset pricing has jumped 17% (~30% in crude tankers). Ship repair also seems well positioned for now with tailwinds including an ageing “wave” of vessels reaching 3rd and 4th special surveys.
Back to Peak …
In our 2024 SMM review, we charted phases in the long-term shipbuilding cycle, including (i) 2008 to 2016: Boom to Bust (SMM 2008 weeks before Lehman, the orderbook was >50% of fleet) (ii) 2016-2022: Recovery (SMM 2016 held during a 20 year ordering low, then gradual recovery and post Covid container led “bounce”) (iii) 2024 Strong Order Flow (container, gas and product tankers were strong). With strong order flow sustained in 2025 (brief “Liberation Day” / USTR pause but record 800 / 5.3m teu container orders) and now in 2026 (50yr high in VLCC, record VLGC orders, container record could be surpassed?), output continues to rise and we project that peak production will be exceeded in 2027. Compared to 2010 however, Chinese output is +39% and rest of world ‑38%. Although shipbuilding (and shipping) has become politically strategic (e.g. India, US), China dominates order intake (70% share) and capacity growth (75% of the ~300 projects we track). European yards retain their lead in cruise (96% share of near record $72bn orderbook).
Shifting Agenda …
Four years ago at SMM 2022, “green” transition dominated discussion (emission regulation seemed to be accelerating towards a global carbon price, LNG-methanol-ammonia was the conference debate of choice). It is clear the agenda has shifted. Shipping is firmly at the “frontline” of extreme global geo-political dynamics, and the related “disruption” is helping drive an extended run of exceptional cross-segment cashflow. Order volumes are near record levels in several sectors and order backlogs for suppliers and yards (especially in China) are robust. With the green consensus “stalling”, alternative fuel investment share has dropped to 25% of orders by tonnage (from 50% four years ago albeit in part reflecting tankers return to orderbook mix) but adoption of Energy Saving Technologies (fuel economics plus emission economics) remains strong (longer-term perspective on net zero, understanding its importance as an underlying trend seems sensible). A balanced view in other areas is also important: an understanding day rates in some segments have become “heroic”, some orderbooks look “toppy” (although overall orderbook is 22% of fleet not the 50% of ‘08), yard capacity is ramping up, fleets are still ageing and fleet renewal is needed, the world needs more ships per tonne of cargo moved today but quantifying is tricky, energy security and energy transition, tech is moving apace, geo-political disruption will throw up both more opportunities and more risks to manage. Enjoy SMM and hope to see you there.”
The full report, and underlying data is available on request.
World Fleet Register (WFR) is the marketing leading data and intelligence platform from Clarksons Research providing data and analysis around the world fleet, vessel equipment and technology, companies, shipbuilding, emissions regulations, fuelling transition and alternative fuels.
Shipping Intelligence Network (SIN) is Clarkson Research’s market leading digital platform and the most comprehensive source of data on shipping and trade. The system provides immediate access to uniquely powerful data and analysis tracking and projecting market supply / demand, freight, vessel earnings, vessel values and macro-economic data around trade flows and global economic developments.
Clarksons Research, the data and analytics arm of Clarksons, are the market leaders in the provision of independent data and intelligence around shipping, trade, offshore and the maritime energy transition. Millions of data points are processed and analysed each day to provide trusted and insightful intelligence to thousands of stakeholders across maritime. Better data for better decisions.
