Q3 2026 Shipping Market Review: Record ClarkSea Index

LONDON: Clarksons Research, the data and intelligence arm of the Clarksons Group, have reported an all-time high for their cross-market “barometer” of shipping rates, the ClarkSea Index. Reviewing third quarter developments across the shipping markets, Steve Gordon, Global Head of Clarksons Research, commented:

• ClarkSea Index reaches record levels, averaging $46,384/day over the quarter
• Exceptional, disruption-driven rate environments across crude tankers (VLCCs averaging $671,000/day with some routes reaching $1.6m/day by early October) and LPG
• Strong charter conditions across product tankers, containers, bulkers and car carrier
• Active flow of newbuild orders, increasing overall orderbook backlog by 25% y-o-y in CGT terms
• Elevated S&P prices, particularly in the crude sector with all-time highs reported

See below for more details, and visit Shipping Intelligence Network for the full report and underlying data.

Driven by exceptionally elevated, disruption-driven rate environments in crude and LPG and supported by strong market conditions across container, car carrier and bulkers, our cross-segment shipping market “barometer”, the ClarkSea Index, has hit an all-time high (Q3: $46,384/day). Strong newbuild flow continued to build orderbook backlog and asset prices in crude tankers “surged”.

The ClarkSea Index reached its highest ever quarterly level ($46,384/day vs $44,222/day of Q2-2008 and 2x the 10 year trend) and highest individual week ($66,000/day). Developments in the Middle East have been the principal driver, with shipping providing the logistical flexibility needed to move significantly increased volumes of oil ‘to market’. The quarter has ended with an estimated 12m bpd of crude (pre-conflict 15m bpd, lows of <2m bpd in Q2 2026) transiting Hormuz, mainly by a “shuttling” fleet from within the Middle East Gulf to the Gulf of Oman where oil is then transferred (via STS operations that take several days) to additional tankers for onward delivery to Asian markets. There have also been changes in logistics at Yanbu, with flows to Asia largely re-routed to avoid the Houthi threat by using “shuttles” to SUMED pipeline and then routing via Cape of Good Hope (attacks on pipeline to Yanbu now paused some of this flow) and more long-haul Brazilian exports (les s US volumes). This combination of improved volumes plus additional “inefficiencies” and distances has pushed VLCC earnings to exceptional levels (>$600,000/day, Q3 avg $277,995/day, some routes now over $1.6m/day) whilst demand for ships for the “shuttle” operations also helped S&P prices “surge” to all-time highs (15 yr old VLCC price > newbuild, resale VLCC index at record $240m). Operational risk is high, with over 100 vessel attacks now reported in the Gulf, c.10 in the Red Sea this year and >200 in the Black Sea. Aside from the Middle East many (geo-political) disruption themes (e.g. Russia sanctions, tariff uncertainty, Panama restrictions) continue and the global economy reported some resilient data points but also building risks.

The unprecedented strength in the VLCC market has filtered down into Suezmax (Q3 avg a record $228,262/day) and Aframax ($119,189/day). The product tanker market has been more modest by comparison but still averaged $31,157/day for MRs and firmed to $60,000/day by quarter end. Aside from developments in the Middle East (what does “normalisation” look like? Is some lingering disruption and / or “stop-start” volumes a realistic scenario for next year?), inventory re-stocking should provide tanker demand support in the coming years, as might pipeline alternatives long-term. In LPG carriers, cargo volume loss has been more than offset by higher tonne-mile demand from long-haul US-Asia trade (notably via the Cape with Panama congested), with VLGC earnings averaging a record $154,853/day. LNG short-term rates softened through Aug-Sep (<$40,000/day) as more US LNG was shipped shorter-haul to Europe where gas inventories are very low heading into winter. Longer term p rospects are better with plenty of volumes arriving through 2030 (watch developments with Qatar for downside risks). Bulkcarrier markets have firmed, basis more “traditional” supply-demand factors, led by Capesize (peaking at >$50,000/day, avg $33,100/day) with Guinea volumes growing and Chinese import demand firm. Container shipping markets remain strong; charter rates edged higher (+12% ytd) while freight rates are generally firm and elevated on the Transpacific; ‘resilient’ global container trade growth (+5%) combined with logistical disruption and congestion (e.g. from Middle East conflict, Panama, port bottlenecks) are supportive despite a gradual return to Red Sea (>160 containerships have “returned”). Car carrier rates have risen (now $95,000/day) amid rapid Chinese car export growth. Offshore oil and gas vessel markets have edged up (index +5% ytd), with energy security potentially a supportive longer-term trend.

Global fleet growth is picking up (2026 (f): +5%). With the exceptional market cashflow, newbuild investment may reach a new record tonnage level this year, and the orderbook has grown by 25% y-o-y (now similar levels to the previous 2008 high (~225m CGT, albeit equal to 23% of fleet vs 52% in 2008). Shipyard output is increasing and may reach a new high in both 2027 (64m CGT) and 2028 (69m CGT) and lead times are long (~3.5 yrs). Shipyard capacity in China continues to ramp up (now >65% of orderbook) and we are monitoring further expansion plans closely (plus smaller developments elsewhere e.g. India). Recycling remains very limited, though fleet renewal requirements from an ageing fleet remains an underlying trend, with potential for demolition to offer a “release valve” ahead when needed. Initial projections suggest acceleration in global fleet growth in 2027-28 to 6% p.a., with strong expansion expected in container (2027/28 growth forecast at 9% / 12%) an d LPG (16% / 8%) and a pick-up in tanker (6% / 7%). The global decarbonisation consensus is stalled, but green investments remain an underlying trend (Energy Saving Technologies now fitted on ~50% of global fleet tonnage).

The short-term market outlook appears very strong, boosted by exceptional crude tanker markets, and developments in the Middle East will continue to dominate the agenda. Calibrating-long term future requirements for shipping demand is increasingly “tricky”, with significant complexities against the evolving geopolitical backdrop. Fleet growth and orderbook in some sectors are now more material. An exceptional cash position with significant opportunity and risk ahead.

Underlying data and full report available on request.

Shipping Intelligence Network (SIN) is Clarkson Research’s market leading digital platform and the most comprehensive source of data on shipping and trade. The system provides immediate access to uniquely powerful data and analysis tracking and projecting market supply / demand, freight, vessel earnings, vessel values and macro-economic data around trade flows and global economic developments.

Clarksons Research, the data and analytics arm of Clarksons, are the market leaders in the provision of independent data and intelligence around shipping, trade, offshore and the maritime energy transition. Millions of data points are processed and analysed each day to provide trusted and insightful intelligence to thousands of stakeholders across maritime. Better data for better decisions.