LONDON: Clarksons Research, the data and analytics arm of the Clarksons Group, continue to track and monitor shipping activity and markets impacted by the Middle East conflict, with energy shipping markets experiencing unprecedented conditions.
Summarising their latest weekly recap issued on Friday at 18.00 pm GMT 9th October, Steve Gordon, Global Head of Clarksons Research commented:
- Crude tanker markets reach fresh all-time highs, with VLCCs averaging $805,000/day globally and freight rates now $20-45/bbl, with USG-China now $37.5/bbl (2025: $5/bbl).
- Fresh all-time highs for LPG freight with VLGCs at $209,000/day US-Japan supported by long-haul US to Asia volumes and returning volumes ex-ME Gulf.
- Further attacks on vessels this week, with at least 10 ships of 1.0m GT damaged in the Middle East in October so far.
- Strong levels of Middle Eastern crude still leaving Gulf region despite some small-scale recent easing; 10m bpd (15m bpd across 2025) appears to have crossed Hormuz in recent days, ~80% of which appears to have been “shuttled” across Hormuz via STS in Gulf of Oman while total Middle Eastern crude flows stand at 16m bpd, ~90% of “normal” and LPG flows out of Gulf now >50% of “normal”.
- Despite recent recovery in flows, a cumulative ~2 billion bbl of crude have not transited Hormuz, albeit a range of mitigating factors (e.g. higher Atlantic supply, Yanbu exports) have limited “net” loss to ~1 billion bbl (there has also been 0.25 bn bbl stock draw since conflict started).
- Energy shipping markets at unprecedented levels with cargo volumes rising and additional vessels required due to waiting times for STS transfer, long-haul Red Sea oil flows – we estimate the current situation is boosting crude tanker demand by >13% today.
More detail from Clarksons Research, including the full update and underlying data, is available on request.
Clarksons Research, the data and analytics arm of Clarksons, are the market leaders in the provision of independent data and intelligence around shipping, trade, offshore and the maritime energy transition. Millions of data points are processed and analysed each day to provide trusted and insightful intelligence to thousands of stakeholders across maritime. Better data for better decisions.
