LONDON: Shipbreaking activity has fallen into its most prolonged continuous decline in over fifty years, at a time when the worldwide commercial fleet is amassing record quantities of older vessels.
According to Clarksons Research, merely 273 vessels amounting to 5.5m gt, or approximately 8m dwt, changed hands for scrapping during the opening nine months of 2026 — a 13% drop from the previous year’s already poor level and 60% lower than the typical figure for the 2000s and 2010s.
For five years running, under 0.5% of worldwide fleet tonnage has been demolished each year, a proportion smaller than even the 2006-08 boom period and the most extended stretch of this kind since the early 1970s.
Consequently, over 340m gt of vessels is now aged 20 years or above, a 90% increase within five years and nearly one-fifth of the global fleet, versus 12% in 2021. More than 150m gt has reached 25 years or older, a 75% rise over five years, and a record 68m gt has exceeded 30 years.
Tankers display this pattern most starkly: 22% of their capacity now exceeds 20 years of age, compared with only 8% half a decade earlier. For container ships, that share has doubled to 16%, even with an orderbook surpassing 40% of the current fleet on the horizon. In contrast, just 12% of bulk carrier capacity and 10% of LNG tonnage is older than 20 years.
Demolition economics continue to lack appeal amid the record freight rates of the 2020s. Scrap steel prices in the Indian subcontinent have climbed 20-25% during this year, yet the ClarkSea Index reached a fresh all-time peak of $84,951 per day on Friday, rendering ongoing trading and resale transactions far more appealing.
Clarksons’ most recent recycling market review logs only 8.4m dwt sold for demolition so far this year. It observes sustained purchasing appetite in Bangladesh and Pakistan, whereas Indian yards prefer specialised vessels.
In its latest weekly update, cash buyer GMS remarked that the closing quarter is turning into a test of endurance, as recyclers possess both the capacity and readiness to purchase, while shipowners retain freight income, resale options and time as advantages.
The expanding reservoir of older ships may eventually offer the industry a significant supply-side outlet once freight markets finally adjust downward.
Source: IndexBox
